Vehicle battery research and development directions and prospects for analysis of
In the new energy vehicle development strategies, countries and regions all over the world are made in accordance with their own assessment of different options, battery technology related research and development and promotion support to take a different strategy. From the current overall situation, Japan and Europe and the United States focused primarily on lithium batteries and fuel cells, and our country as a result of taking into account the resources and technology maturity, in the newly released policy towards the promotion of nickel-hydrogen batteries.
Ni-MH battery has become the focus of our policy support at this stage
China’s Ministry of Public Works in letter dated June 25 release of “new energy automobile production enterprises and the rules governing market access for their products”, according to new energy vehicles, systems and technical maturity of the key assembly, the state and industry standards, as well as improve the degree of industry different degree, to be divided between the initial period, development period, three different technologies mature stage, and give classified management.
In accordance with state regulations, only the initial phase of small-volume production of products, and only in approved areas, the scope, duration and under the conditions of the model run, and all products for real-time monitoring of running status; development period to allow for mass production products only in approved areas, the scope, duration and conditions of the sale, use, and at least 20% of the sales of products for real-time monitoring of running status; stage products and products of conventional car “vehicle manufacturers and product announcement” management the same manner as in the sale and use of automotive products with the same routine.
This means that in China, December 31, 2010, equipped with lithium-ion battery hybrid and electric vehicles will be limited to the sale and use of the region, and the use of nickel-metal hydride battery hybrid and electric vehicles in the sale and use of the country.
Experts believe that the reason why countries are now the focus from the development of lithium batteries into nickel-metal hydride batteries, the main reason is that the nickel-metal hydride battery technology is more mature than the lithium batteries, more abundant mineral resources, the future make it easier for new energy into the car commercial stage.
“Ni-MH - Lithium power - fuel cells,” the path of industrialization
In the three commonly used in car batteries, lead-acid batteries as a result of serious environmental pollution, have long been out of the mainstream applications; nickel-metal hydride batteries, although the mainstream of current business, but the key indicators of laboratory data were lower than the lithium batteries, and theoretically There is no room for fundamental; lithium batteries despite the superior performance, but security can not be guaranteed, and the relatively high costs have also hindered their business.
Experts predict that new energy vehicles in the “Ni-MH - Lithium power - fuel cells,” the path of the development of industrialization. From the development trend and speed, the short-term performance can be realized only nickel-hydrogen batteries, nickel metal hydride battery technology as the most mature, the next 3 years will remain the mainstream of new energy vehicles, followed by nickel-metal hydride battery technology and lithium iron phosphate , hydrogen fuel cell two-thirds of the world, 5 years and lithium batteries have been gradually replaced by fuel cells. Battery giant Panasonic and Sanyo also found that the lithium-ion power batteries can not be in 2 to 3 years to replace the nickel-hydrogen batteries, mainly due to lower nickel-hydrogen battery safety, has reached large-scale production. Lithium batteries also need to continue tackling issues such as security, so it still takes time to commercialize.
According to Fuji economic analysis, Ni-MH battery will be the mainstream in 2011 may be continued, but after 2011 will gradually be eroded lithium batteries nickel metal hydride battery market share, the agency estimated in 2009 Ni-MH rechargeable car battery with a global market size will grow 23.7 percent over the previous year, reaching ¥ 92,000,000,000, but the car in 2015 with Ni-MH rechargeable battery market size will be reduced to ¥ 55,000,000,000.
Market demand for nickel-hydrogen batteries rapid growth brought about by 2-3 years
Nickel-hydrogen battery technology and the industrial chain in the mature decision to be a certain period of time with its lithium-ion battery co-existence, lithium iron phosphate cathode material for lithium-ion battery makes the emergence of performance and cost advantages have been achieved, but the stability of mass production inadequate capacity and lack of practical testing of new energy sources are still some manufacturers discourage car; In contrast, the nickel-hydrogen battery has gone through many years of actual combat, technical and industrial chain are quite perfect, in a short period of time can be formed on the vehicle supporting the capacity of the stability and thus can still be a certain period of time in the new energy vehicle widely used.
According to industry estimates, nickel hydrogen battery market is still expected to get 2-3 years growth in the next 2-3 years, “10 City 1000″ program, the progressive hybrid vehicle popularity, export factors such as the overseas market for nickel hydrogen battery market brought about by strong growth in demand, and when the nickel-metal hydride batteries and lithium batteries is still a time when难分伯仲, nickel hydrogen batteries will also usher in a short period of rapid growth.
Among them, China has carried out “10 City 1000″ project will bring the first batch of nickel-hydrogen battery market demand. It is estimated that in “10 City 1000″ project will be about 3200-4000 units of new energy vehicles (including buses and passenger cars) made use of nickel-hydrogen batteries, bringing the total in three years is about 3.5-4.4 million kilowatt-hour nickel hydrogen battery needs.
Taken together, both domestic and export demand weakened, the post-2012 nickel hydrogen batteries will gradually be replaced by lithium batteries.
Keep up the pace of R & D policy
In China’s automotive battery production enterprises, with a nickel-hydrogen battery production capacity of the majority of enterprises, including Chunlan Group, Section power far in the torch high, Hunan Shenzhou, Kane shares, etc., which is Chunlan Group HEV Ni-MH a leader in battery technology, the market share leader in high-tech and Hunan Shenzhou torch also has a certain amount of technical base and market position.
As for Li-ion battery, most domestic manufacturers do not have the ability to mass production, but has been associated in the implementation of production planning, which is expected later in 2010 to volume production.
Experts believe that technological advances, China’s vehicle prices and related businesses in addition to promote cell Ni-MH battery industry, the Government should look to more long-term investment of human and material resources to carry out research and development driving force for lithium batteries and fuel cells to maintain technical follow-up for the occupation of a broader market of new energy to prepare.
Lithium-ion battery in 2-3 years, even though difficult to replace the nickel-hydrogen batteries, however, should not be overlooked is the future of lithium batteries will replace the nickel-hydrogen batteries as a new energy automotive mainstream. Globally, Japan is currently the international automotive and new energy research and application of battery power the most advanced countries, the current major Japanese car and battery car companies are to invest in lithium-ion power battery production line, concentrated in the 2010-2011 production. Fuji economic view, lithium-ion battery will begin in 2011 to replace the nickel-metal hydride batteries, lithium-ion battery technology as the mainstream of the next line of no doubt.
Today, Japan In addition to the focus shifted to lithium batteries, the Japanese in the new energy development and use of motor vehicles, particularly fuel cell vehicles in the development and promotion, far exceeded the rate expected in China. A few years ago the Japanese Economy, Trade and Industry on the development of fuel cell vehicles and to promote the development of a timetable of its strategic objectives are: By 2010, the Japanese used in fuel cell vehicles to reach 50,000; in 2020 to reach 5,000,000; 2030 years, universal access to fuel cell vehicles.